Worst-case scenario for 1,000 acres
by Kathryn Koch - WickedLocal.com

PLYMOUTH - Planning and Development Director Lee Hartmann has prepared what he calls the worst case scenario for buildout around the 1,000 acres of town land, with or without Plymouth Rock Studios.

Presenting his buildout analysis to the Plymouth 1000 Citizens Advisory Committee last Wednesday night, Hartmann cautioned that immediate development of every piece of property that can be developed under his worst-case scenario is unlikely. He said some of the land will never be built on.

“Even if something like the studio comes in and encourages development in the community, it still won’t happen overnight,” he said.

Hartmann said he couldn’t say if the studio will speed development, but he made it clear that with the film production studio or without it, it’s inevitable that people will continue to move into South Plymouth and put pressure on Bourne Road.

Ken Caputo, an engineer with Coler and Colantonio representing Plymouth Rock Studios, pressed Hartmann for his gut feeling on the reality of the fast pace of development. Hartmann said he doesn’t expect it to grow any faster, but save the slow economy lately, development has been growing by leaps and bounds.

Caputo challenged that a full-fledged study would be more complete than Hartmann’s buildout analysis. He said it’s not a true buildout analysis. Hartmann said his analysis was intended to help answer the question: What else is out here?

Hartmann conducted two reviews, one within a three-mile radius and one within a radius of five miles, to determine what he called the order of magnitude of development around the 1,000 acres. He said his “ballpark” analysis was developed using GIS (geographic information system) data and 2000 census results.

The five-mile radius includes most of the developable land in South Plymouth beginning in the north in the vicinity of Morgan and Ship Pond roads and all of the land south, including Cedarville. Of the 4,532 acres, there are 1,255 potential house lots. Of the 3,752 people, 599 would be school age.

The three-mile radius extends south of South Elementary School, Long Pond Road in the vicinity of Alewife Drive and west of Route 3. Of the 2,241 acres, there are 824 potential house lots. Of the 2,463 people, 393 would be school age. Hartmann looked at three different residential zones.

CAC member Paul Cripps, also managing director of the local tourism marketing group Destination Plymouth, asked about the possibility of the zoning changing from residential to commercial.

Hartmann said zoning changes would require a two-thirds majority of Town Meeting representatives for approval.

“We as a town have complete control over it,” he said.

Hartmann said the town needs to define where on the 1,000 acres of town-owned land and the land around it development should occur if at all.He said zoning provides reasonable regulation and isn’t a tool for preventing development altogether.

He said he’s fearful that in 20 years with Plymouth Rock Studios or another kind of development that people won’t be able to get down Bourne Road.

Hartmann made several assumptions in his analysis and left room for error. The A.D. Makepeace land on which 1,100 units of housing are proposed was not included. He assumes that between 10 and 15 percent of the available land must be devoted to the construction of roads and drainage facilities. He assumes that some level of development is possible on almost every parcel of land given that there are few constraints on development with Plymouth’s sandy soils, large aquifer, limited wetlands and limited bedrock.

Committee members also talked about a potential nonbinding referendum question on the election-day ballot in May that would give voters the chance to vote yes or no in favor of Plymouth Rock Studios. Town Manager Mark Sylvia asked for feedback from committee members that he would report back to the Board of Selectmen. The selectmen can choose to put the question on the ballot, or it could be placed on the ballot by petition.

CAC member Tim Grandy appeared to speak for all members when he said a referendum question is a great idea. No one spoke against it, but there was a question about when Town Meeting would actually vote on a transfer of the land to Plymouth Rock Studios through a non-profit entity and a potential zoning overlay district.

Sylvia said he expects that a special Town Meeting just for Plymouth Rock Studios will be scheduled for some time in June, after the ballots have been cast in May. Sylvia is drafting warrant articles in preparation.

The final business was a presentation by Joe DiLorenzo from Plymouth Rock Studios on the positioning of recreation facilities on the left side of Bourne Road. Plans aren’t finalized, but soccer and baseball fields and basketball and tennis courts are potential uses.

Grandy said Plymouth Rock Studios needs to account for future expansion of recreation when finalizing recreation plans. He said there needs to be room to grow, even if half the land Hartmann accounts for in his analysis sees buildout.